What, where and how to invest at such a time as this?

Yesterday a subsidiary of my company organized an Elementary Investing seminar where I was one of the speakers. Besides my Chairman who was an ex-banker, there were 3 other speakers, two are Head of Private Banking, one from a local bank and the other from a bank in Singapore. The other guest speaker is a MD of an asset management company. So I was the odd one out. I'm a lawyer by training. But since my Chairman knows I'm passionate about value investing and has achieved some decent results, he asked me to speak on value investing. Personally, I dread public presentation but can't say no when the boss told you to do it.

I guess the seminar was timely in wake of the financial turmoil in the world following the collapse of Lehman Bros. Financial giants would have fallen like a house of cards if not for the bailouts by the Fed and rescue from investor like Warren Buffet. During lunch with the 2 private bankers, I realized that the impact of the collapse of Lehman Bros. is huge. They told me and those attending the seminar that they have almost nothing to sell to their clients now. I guess everyone now is paralysed by fear.

My topic was Value Investing - The investing philosophy adopted by the richest man (for a while) in the world. The words in the brackets were added in last week because when I started preparing for the talk, Warren Buffet was the richest man in the world. Last week, the ranking was revised and he has dropped to 3rd place.

I told my audience that what I was about to present is nothing original. My approach was to let Warren Buffet speaks for himself. My presentation will be peppered with quotations from him. Some of those are real gems. Where appropriate I will give my comments and illustrations. But sometimes there will be nothing to be added to wisdom.

From the feedback, I guess I did not do too bad though I felt I've rushed through the whole presentation because of time constraint. Some things were left unsaid.

We had a panel discussion after everyone has spoken. The speakers were asked for their opinions on certain issues and there were some questions from the floor. One of the questions for discussion was 'What is your outlook and what trends do you see? E.g. market, currency, interest, commodity, prices, inflation etc.'

I was the last to respond and I said it was a wrong question to ask me as unlike the other speakers I'm no expert of the financial markets. Secondly as a value investor I really don't care about the outlook and trends because I follow what my sifu, Warren Buffet's approach. I quoted him

'If we find the company we like, the level of the market will not really impact our decisions. We decide company by company. We spend essentially no time thinking about macroeconomic factors. In other words, if somebody handed us a prediction by the most revered intellectual on the subject, with figures for unemployment or interest rate or whatever it may be for the next two years, we would not pay any attention to it. We simply focus on the business that we think we understand and where we like the price and management. If we see anything that relates to what's going to happen in Congress, we don't even read it. We just don't think it's helpful to have view on these matters.'

If you ask me where to put my money in these turbulent times? I would say stocks because they are one of the asset class of investments I understand well. Invest in things that you understand. Don't invest in products that you don't understand even if they are capital guaranteed. After all, the guarantee is only as good as the guarantor. After what we witnessed in the financial markets in the past weeks, can anyone really guarantee someone's capital?

I end with 2 quotes from Warren Buffet

1.Investment must be rational. If you can't understand it, don't do it.

2.Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing

ISA - A Muslim's perspective

Last night at a forum 'Abolish the ISA' organized by the DAP, Syed Ibrahim Syed Noh, the chairperson of the working committee of the Abolish ISA Movement or GMI (Gerakan Mansuhkan ISA) said this at the conclusion of his speech. (I'm quoting from my recollection so it's not word for word but I think it's 95% accurate)

'Sebagai seorang Muslim saya berdosa jika saya biarkan ISA terus bermaharajalela.' (Trans: As a Muslim I sinned if I allow the ISA to continue its tyranny)

That is the public stand made by a Muslim on the ISA.

(Syed Ibrahim is also the vice-president of the Muslim NGO Jamaah Islah Malaysia which has issued a condemnation on the use of ISA on Teresa Kok, RPK and the Sin Chew reporter)

Where is the Christian voice against this immoral and evil piece legislation? I wonder how many Christian leaders in this country think they have sinned if the remain silent on injustices perpetuated by the ruling party. No, they only think it's immoral to topple an evil government (to be fair this is probably not their view of the present government) through the backdoor.

Please talk to Kak Laila whose husband now is at his 7th year of detention under the ISA. She is one strong lady but I cried when I first heard her testimony on how the ISA has destroyed her family life. She has set up her own blog recently. Please go and read. Yes, talk to and listen to many more testimonies by ex-detainees or family members. ISA does not only impact the detainees but thousands of others who are related to them. Each of us in way is also impacted as no man is an island.

Yes, after you have been 'informed', only then shall we discuss again the morality of crossing over.

For another Muslim's perspective read here

A Time for Politics and a Time for Tea

I've just read the blog of a local theologian whom I respect arguing that it's unethical for Pakatan Rakyat to try to get BN MPs to cross-overs. It is not difficult for me to rebut him point by point as there is nothing new that I've not read about the whole issue of cross-overs. But what's the point? I'm getting tired. I just need to accept that people even people whom I respect have different views. Anyway, whether Pakatan Rakyat succeeds in forming the Federal Government, there is no turning back. I wrote about the new wine that cannot be kept anymore in old wineskin. This was confirmed on 916 as I stood with 20,000 other Malaysians of different races and religions in Kelana Jaya Stadium singing our national anthem 'Negaraku'. I've never felt so emotional singing our national anthem. The journey for me started with the Bersih rally in November last year. As I walked shoulder to shoulder with my Malay countrymen and women I was overcame with a great sense love and respect for them. Whatever former prejudices I had towards the Malays because of the injustice and unfairness I felt due to the NEP was immediately melted away. At that moment I felt one with them.

The days ahead may be chaotic and full of troubles, but then, who say giving birth is easy. OK, I should stop writing about politics for now. It's time for tea.

Recently I think I got some very good bargains. The Puer market has undergone a severe correction last year. The older and more vintage teas are still able to maintain their prices but the newer teas have taken a severe beating. I bought 2 tongs (7 pieces in one tong) of Menghai 7352 (2008) raw puer tea for RM140 or RM20 a piece. New Menghai raw tea were sellling for more than RM100 per piece last year



I've not actually tasted it. But I guess RM20 is not too much to pay for a good brand. The other 2 that I bought was even more value for money. Xiaguan 100g raw tuocha (2006) and a 250g ripe Puer brick (2008) for just RM8 each. I've tasted them and they are not bad especially the brick tea. According to the vendor though the tea was produced this year, the raw material (mao cha) is much older

The Morality of Crossovers

Whilst it is accepted by most that Pakatan Rakyat's effort in getting BN MPs to crossover is legal and very much within our constitutional framework, people are generally divided over whether it is moral to do so. Many have given their views including yours truly (one of the best arguments I've read for the crossovers is William Leong's piece found in Malaysiakini despite his political affliations) and the latest to jump on the bandwagon is Rev. Wong Kim Kong, the executive adviser of NECF a body which supposedly represents one million evangelical Christians in this country. He made the following statement in the Star today

“Using the back door to form the government is not credible and is an undignified way of creating a governing authority.

“No doubt the personality and individual’s track record are important but voters are also choosing you based on what your party represents, its principles and manifesto,” said Rev Wong.

Should an MP no longer have faith in the party he represented, Rev Wong said the honourable thing to do would be to resign and seek a fresh mandate from the voters.

Incidentally the other person who agrees with Rev. Wong in the same report is the Muslim Consumers’ Association of Malaysia secretary-general Datuk Dr Ma’amor Osman. That is the same guy who lodged a police report against my MP, Teresa Kok after she was detained under the ISA. He supported the Government's decision to arrest Teresa. Now he talks about morality.

I'm sick and tired of people telling the MPs to resign and seek a fresh mandate from the voters. Don't they know our present law doesn't allow that. Any MP who resigns will be barred from contesting for a period of 5 years (if I'm not mistaken).

Rev. Wong, we have enough of MPs and State Assemblypersons who fear their own Party Whip more than they fear God. We have enough of those who dare not vote according to their conscience and to do what is right and just. But they tell us they do agonised over their decision and cry on their knees in the comfort of their own home. Thank God some of these Christian MPs and ADUNs got booted out on 8/03.

I think it has come to a point where it is untenable for a Christian MP to remain in the BN so as to perpetuate the UMNO led Government. Is perpetuating a morally bankrupt government a Christian virtue, Rev. Wong?

Rev Wong, did you or NECF protest and say it was immoral when BN engineered the crossovers of ADUNs in Sabah in 1994 leading to the collapse of the PBS government?

Lastly Rev. Wong, didn't I hear something about the 'using the back door' recently. Ah yes, now I remember. Chandra Muzaffar has also slammed Anwar for using the back door way. Seems like you are in good company.

A Prayer for a new Malaysia

O Mighty and Sovereign Lord
We come before Thee to pray for our beloved nation
A nation which is currently experiencing birth pangs

Deliver to us O Lord a new Malaysia
A new Malaysia that is free from racial politics
A new Malaysia that is free from evil laws such as the ISA
A new Malaysia that is free from evil people who uses evil law such as the ISA
A new Malaysia where the poor and needy irrespective of race or religion is taken care of
A new Malaysia where justice and righteousness is established
A new Malaysia where the interest of the rakyat is always paramount

Hasten O Lord the delivery
Remove anyone who plots to impede the delivery of this new Malaysia
May Your righteous anger burn against them and reduce them to dust

Grant to us O Lord the joy of a mother caressing her newborn
Finally O Lord as your people, the church, may we be faithful in bringing to maturity this newborn, this gift whom Thou will bestow on us

In the Name of the One who is before all things and by whom all things hold together, Amen.

What is your stand?

Someone emailed me today an article by Goh Keat Peng - What it takes to turn the national agenda around. Very well written. But I'm actually going to blog about his previous article, My Stand written the day after 3 people were arrested under the ISA.

I don't have the privilege to know Keat Peng personally (only heard him speak once at a FES function) but from the little I know he was a respectable and well known Christian leader until he decided to join the Reformasi movement in 1998 and became one of the founding members of KeADILan. He came under severe criticisms by other Christian leaders for taking part in partisan politics. After he left KeADILan, I haven't heard much about him until now.

What struck me about the article was its stark contrast to the response of the current Christian leadership in Malaysia to injustices and evil governance as illustrated by the press statement from NECF and a lack of one from CCM which I wrote about yesterday.

Here we find a man who has drawn a line in the sand. A line dividing good and evil. A man who is willing to make his stand on the side of justice irregardless of the consequences. A man who calls his fellow Christians to come down from the fence and make a similar stand because he knows our decision at this point in the history of our nation will affect the coming generations.

Please read another article 'Moving on Neutral' written last month. The following is an excerpt from the article.

In fact, the Christian leadership in the country has been so pronounced and prolonged in their silence that the signal is sent out LOUD & CLEAR to Malaysians of the various faiths and communities that the Christian Church is uninterested in the affairs of state, in lending its voice to issues of good governance.

In fact, other Malaysians have noted that the Christian churches are only interested in looking after themselves: their places of worship, building renovations, their rights, their bibles, what words they can use, and their burial grounds.

In fact, in pleading its understandable non-partisanship in politics, Christian churches have seemingly also held its peace and would not care to speak on critical matters concerning the equitable distribution of the nation’s resources, the status of state institutions, the state of the judiciary.

Bro Keat Peng, you are no small fry. To me you are a giant in times such as this. I pray you will continue to play your prophetic role within the Christian community in this country. I know. Prophets are often not welcomed in their own community.

A Pathetic Evangelical Response to ISA

NECF the organization which supposedly represents 1 million evangelicals in Malaysia issued a press statement yesterday which I'm reproducing below

As a national body that represents some one million evangelical Christians in Malaysia, NECF Malaysia is deeply concerned over the use of the ISA and printing laws against newspapers and individuals who are performing the vital duty of bringing critical issues to the attention of the Malaysian public for constructive debate.

While the release of journalist Tan Hoon Cheng is welcomed, NECF believes that the ISA should not have been used in the first place to arrest and detain Tan, Raja Petra Kamaruddin and Seputeh MP YB Teresa Kok. The denial of due process occasioned by preventive detention under ISA is unfair and a violation of the constitutional rights of citizens.

If there are grounds to suspect that any of the three citizens detained under ISA on 12 September 2008 had committed any wrongdoing, they should be charged in court and be afforded the opportunity to defend themselves. If they are found guilty of any wrongdoing after the due process of a trial, there can be no complaint to the appropriate punishment being meted out against them.

NECF therefore calls upon the government to guarantee the safety and well-being of Raja Petra Kamaruddin and Seputeh MP YB Teresa Kok by immediately releasing them unconditionally.

NECF is also concerned that the show cause letters issued to Sin Chew Daily, The Sun and Suara Keadilan for reporting on matters, which rightfully belong to the public domain, has the undesired effect of stifling press freedom and journalistic integrity. NECF believes that the results of the March 8 elections have demonstrated the maturity of the Malaysian populace and their desire to interact on various issues confronting the nation. Freedom of information is vital to this process. The eagerness to use the penal sanctions of the printing laws will undermine the process of constructive debate and the maturing of the citizenry in participating in nation-building.

NECF therefore calls upon the government to confirm their recent public commitment to greater press freedom by withdrawing the show-cause letters issued to the three newspapers and the Catholic’s newspaper, Herald. (emphasis mine)

To say that I disappointed would be an understatement. Hey, I'm not deeply concerned. I'm outraged! The ISA is only unfair and violation of constitutional rights of citizens?? ISA is immoral, evil, unjust and has no place in a civil society! It's not only violation of human rights, but gross violation of human rights. Unfair? Are we playing some games here?

Where are words of condemnation? Is NECF afraid to offend the Government?

I feel more ashamed when I read ABIM's response which I'm also reproducing below

The Muslim Youth Movement of Malaysia (ABIM) strongly affirms that Malaysia is a country of laws not of men. We are a country which respects the rule of law and its equal application to all citizens under our Constitution and our guiding Islamic principles. At no time should a person be detained without undergoing due process of law, in which the right to fair hearing is of utmost importance, and criminal prosecution initiated for unreasonable purposes. Such an action, regardless of the initiating party, goes against the principles of natural justice and the Syari’ah which mandates impartiality, justice and fairness.
We strongly condemn the detentions of blogger Raja Petra Kamaruddin and Seputeh MP Teresa Kok under the draconian law of the Internal Security Act (ISA). ISA is a draconian instrument that goes against all tenets of fairness, justice and demoting the rule of law. It promotes cruelty and injustice by denying its detainees the right to be heard and a fair trial. In addition, the ISA is also prone to political abuse and there have been instances where the detainees have been mistreated. (emphasis mine)

Muslim Youth strongly condemns whereas evangelicals are only deeply concerned. I'm afraid words like 'justice' or 'injustice' is no longer a part of evangelical vocabulary. Whereas people now know the Syariah mandates impartiality, justice and fairness, we got no clue as to what the Christian Scriptures has to say about this issue.

Another Muslim NGO JMI has also released a statement saying ISA is un-Islamic. We are not sure whether this ISA is un-Christian. NECF was silent on this. JMI also said that the arrest of Teresa Kok was an injustice based on the facts that she has denied the allegations made against her and her denial was affirmed by the supposedly wronged party. Finally JMI is against detention without trial as it goes against the principles of justice. I wonder what is NECF's position on the ISA?

The mainline churches didn't fare any better. In fact it's worse.A check at CCM (Council of Churches of Malaysia's website) didn't mention anything at all about this issue. What was immediately noticeable was the fund raising for their building fund. RM8.2 million is needed. Gosh that 's a lot of money.

At least our Roman Catholic brethren are more vocal. 'Penang Cathedral denounces ISA before 800'. I don't think I'm going to read this kind of headline in the media, MSM or blogs, 'Calvary Church condemns the use of ISA before 2000'

Whither the Old Testament prophets?

NECF, I don't think you represent me anymore.

Praying the Imprecatory Psalms

May his (Badawi's) days be few;
may another take his (Badawi's) office
(Psalm 109:8)

And to all those who are involved in this ISA operation, I pray

Pour out your indignation upon them,
and let your burning anger overtake them (Psalm 69:24)

It is darkest before dawn

That's what we are told. I hope it's true too for Malaysia. Within less than 12 hours 3 people have been detained under the ISA including my MP, YB Teresa Kok. I wonder how many more will be arrested before dawn tomorrow.

So are we still going to argue about the morality of BN's MPs crossing over to PR. Please do not give me the 'two wrongs do not make a right' kind of shit. It is not wrong to topple an evil and immoral government through peaceful and legal means.

Words just fail to described the outrage I feel at this moment particular in the case of YB Teresa Kok. A victim of malicious falsehood is now arrested while nothing has been done to the perpetrators.

916 - A New Dawn or A Descent into Chaos?

It's only 10 days away from the date Anwar Ibrahim set to takeover the Government through the defections of BN MPs. I'm sure we all have been asked whether that is possible. I too have been asked many times though I'm neither a political analyst or a political pundit. My answer has been, I've scoffed at Anwar before the last GE during one of his interviews where he claimed that the Opposition would win 5 states (not the 5 that were actually won) and denying the BN 2/3 majority was not a problem and they were even close to winning with a simple majority. That to me was the view of a politicain and not a realist. Well, I can never be sure now about 916.

Many including those from civil society (Kua Kia Soong) and those have been critical of BN's governance (e.g. ex executive editor of the Edge, P Gunasegaram) have questioned the morality and ethics of pursuading the BN MPs to cross-over to PR. Some fear that the country will be torn apart given the high stakes that are involved. For some (like one of my CG member), they wish Dr. M is back to give us another 22 years of 'peace and prosperity'

For me the events of last year starting from the lawyers march in Putrajaya, the Bersih and Hindraf rally which culminated in the March GE are very much like new wine. They can never be kept again in the old wineskin of race based politics of BN. Let me deal with some of the objections raised against defections.

1) It betrayed the mandate given by the voters. The voters voted for the party and not the individual. I will use another argument i.e. 'why is PR in a hurry to takeover the Federal Govt. They have 5 states in hand and if they govern well, surely they will be voted in the next GE' to counter this objection. Well, if the MP really betrays the voters, can't they wait for the next GE to kick him/her out. (Our election laws disallow an MP who resigns to recontest the seat again. So going back to the voters is not possible)

2) Why can't PR concentrate on governing the 5 states well? The Federal Govt doesn't allow them to. Fundings are being cut off. Not every one is like the Kelantanese who doesn't mind non development. Trengganu was denied its oil royalty when PAS took over. The next GE it was defeated. People especially in Penang and Selangor will be impatient when there is little or no development. Without Federal funding, it's difficulet for a state to continue to develop.

3) The same corrupt politician will be brought into Pakatan and we will have the same problem all over again. This may be true but the corrupt politicians need to know that whether they are in BN or PR, their end will be near as the people will kick them out at the first opportunity. The March GE and the Permatang Pauh by-election are not the victory of the PR and Anwar respectively. It's the victory for the rakyat. We are no longer fooled and henceforth will make politicians our servants and not our masters.

4) BN will not sit down and let Anwar take over. They will create chaos and this political instability will be bad for the economy of the country. I'm sure they will do whatever they can to prevent Anwar from taking over. Anyway, another few more years of Badawi's/BN's management of the economy, the damage done will be irreversible. And about chaos and violence. Here is where as Christians we need to discharge our duty to pray for the nation. Pray to our Sovereign God that He will restrain evil and evil people will be removed.

Why I have no moral or ethical issues over the defections?

1) BN in particular UNMO has shown it is unable to reform itself after the last GE. In fact it has become worse
2) A few years under a racist party like UNMO and racist machineries like the BTN, national unity will forever remain an illusion
3) Another few more years of flip-flop policies, Malaysia will become a basket case to foreign investors
4) We have an immoral Government that refuses to abolish an immoral law
4) We have a PM in waiting who have repeated that all children irrespective of race are his children and has given us hope by ushering a new dawn and make Malaysia into a great nation. Dare he fail us?